A oferta de leite no Estado de Minas Gerais: um estudo no período de 1975 a 1995

Abstract

Milk, rich in proteins and calcium among other necessary nutrients to human feeding, presents itselfwith a supply below the demanding necessities of the domestic market. Before the importance ofthe State ofMinas Gerais as milk producer in the Brazilian context, it has been decided to realize a study to analyse the supply ofthe product in this region. Knowing that Brazil has problems ofinternai supplying ofmilk, at the same time that it proposes to be an exporter ofthe product, this study had as objectives identify the variables that influence on the supply ofmilk, estimate the elasticitiy-price and cross-price of supply mthe short and long term having the proposal of contributing to the outlimng and assessment ofpolicies that aim for promoting the raise ofmilk production taking into consideration the moderaization of this sector. To conduct the research itwas based on the firm theory that suggests that the rural producer due to his conchtion ofprice taker and cost restrictions, works to maximize the interest and, it was followed, yet, the Nerloviano model ofdelayed distribuition, that admits the hypothesis that the effect of supply ofcertain product, because ofmotives ofadjustment on the production, taken by strictness ofresources, after given a lapse oftime. Secondary data oftemporal series, in the State ofMinas Gerais, were taken within the period of1975 a 1995. The results permit to infer that the sensibility to the economical stimulus is bigger in the long than in the short term, in spite ofthe elasticities have been presented as inelastic in both terms. The producers, with the price stimulus, ajust 98% of their expectation of offer within 3 years, managing to eliminate 70% of the imbalances between observed production and balance production in the period ofone year. Didn't have response offarmer in relation to the price ofmilk and the beefcattle appeared itselfas an activity complementary to the dairy activity helping itto grow the quantities ofmilk offer. The com price variable is that was more important to influence in the mihVs supply. The prices of fectors of production show themselves more important than the price ofmilk, indicating that the farmer must direct his attentions "into the farm". Notice that the estimates ofthe elasticities ofsupply obtained in this study, in despite of producers had not answered to prices ofmilk, can be used to formulate and evaluate programs and policies regarding to the milk sector ofthe country, once they are important instruments to the conduct of production planning and forecast ofsupply.