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Autor: Silva, Carolina Souza Jarochinski e
Oliveira, Antonio Donizette de
Coelho Junior, Luiz Moreira
Scolforo, José Roberto Soares
Souza, Álvaro Nogueira de
Palavras-chave: Risk analysis. Monte Carlo simulation. Production cost.
Publicador: CERNE
Data: 6-Abr-2016
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Descrição: The general objective of this paper was studying the economic feasibility and determining the economic rotation of candeia planting at various spacings under risky conditions. The study was conducted from an experimental planting of candeia consisting of four spacings (1.5 x 1.5 m, 1.5 x 2.0 m, 1.5 x 2.5 m and 1.5 x 3.0 m) for which the cash flows related to the different cutting ages were obtained. For the risk analysis the Monte Carlo method was used, its having the Equivalent Annual Value (EAV) as the output variable (output) and as input variables (sources of uncertainty) the probability distributions concerning the price of the seedlings, land and wood, the harvest cost, interest rates and timber production. The simulation constituted in the doing of 50,000 iterations from where the information necessary to the analyses was extracted. It was concluded that the 1.5 x 3.0 m spacing was the most economically viable and presented a lower risk level than the other spacings. The economic rotation was 12, 13, 13 and 15 years for the spacings 1.5 x 3.0 m, 1.5 x 2.5 m, 1.5 x 2.0m and 1.5 x 1.5m, respectively. Information obtained about the economic risks involved in planting candle serve as a tool to aid in making decisions regarding new plantings of this species and also as a basis for future experiments with the same, seeking to improve its culture. 
Idioma: eng
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