Rentabilidade econômica e risco na produção de carvão vegetal

Abstract

The goal of the present work was to evaluate the economic viability of producing charcoal in eucalypt stands, in deteministic and risk conditions. In order to do this, the costs of a forest project were defined, as well as the production of charcoal under the management regime with three rotations per cicle. The risk analysis was carried out through the Monte Carlo method, using the @RISK software. Through the deterministic analysis, the economic indicators were positive (viable), and the risk analysis indicates that there is a probability of 12 % for obtaining negative values, namely, for the project to be economicaly inviable. It was demonstrated that the inclusion of the risk analysis in the analysis of a project economic rentability offers greater safety for inference about the economic indicators.