Formação bruta de capital fixo: contribuições dos setores público e privado no crescimento econômico

Abstract

The present study had as it main objective to estimate the effects of public and private investments on the per capita GDP of 81 countries between 2008 and 2016 and to verify if there were significant differences in the effects of these investments according to the origin of the capital. In addition to that, having in mind the question of the participation of investments in GDP and of the presence of the two sectors in the analyzed economies, the study also describedthe trajectories of aggregate and disaggregated investments in public and private, and their relation with the GDP of the countries investigated. The methodology consisted of the analysis of multiple linear regression (robust) with panel data, with adjustments for fixed effects in blocks 1, 2 and 3, and for random effects in block 4. The grouping of the sample was carried out based on the assumptions of the quantile regression model, due to the heterogeneity verified among the data referring to the variables used in the research, since it is a sample that covers countries around the world. Thus, observing the response of each quantile, and not only in relation to the overall sample mean, as well as taking into account the control of fixed and random effects, the effects of public and private investment on GDP per capita could be better captured. The results showed that the investments carried out followed the GDP trajectory in the country blocks during the observed series. There was a stagnation or retraction in the investment levels of the blocks from 2008 to 2009, demonstrating the effects of the mortgage crisis on investment decisions, mainly in the private sector, which was more sensitive to the crisis than the public investments in all blocks analyzed. It was observed that public investments presented, in absolute terms, lower amounts than those referring to private investments, more in the lower income countries. It was not possible to establish a relationship between the pace of economic growth and the share of public or private investment in GDP. Empirical evidence indicated that there was a positive effect of private investment on GDP per capita in 3 of the 4 country groupings analyzed, compared to public investment. Public investment did not present statistical significance in the model estimated for block 4, suggesting that public sector investments did not have a direct impact on the product of the economies in question.