Precipitação mensal provável do município de Formiga - MG

Abstract

The probable rainfall may be defined as the minimum rainfall water depth expected to a region associated with a probability level, thus, the present study aims to estimate the probable monthly rainfall of Formiga - MG, with the definition of frequency distributions that best represent historical series of monthly rainfall. The rainfall data were obtained from Hidroweb system, from the Agência Nacional de Águas, aiming to obtain monthly rainfall from the aggregation of daily rainfall on each month, using exceedance frequency. Were adjusted, to the observed series, the statistical frequency distributions: Gumbel, Fréchet, Gamma and Log-Normal 2 and 3 parameters, being the fit of these models to the data tested by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Chi-Squared test, both with 5% of probability. The Gamma distribution had best fit to most of monthly precipitation series. The maximum monthly probable rainfall at Formiga is 506.5915 mm, associated with a probability of 5% and for the month of January, while the lowest is 0.0819 mm, with probability 95%, in July.