Estimativas de velocidade máxima de vento em Piracicaba - SP via séries temporais e teoria de valores extremos

Abstract

In this work we aim to estimate the extreme levels of wind speeds from Piracicaba, São Paulo, Brazil, using extreme value theory (Gumbel distribution) and time series (TS). The data considered in this paper refer to maximum wind speed by daily from Piracicaba of the period from January 1980 to September 2013. To measure the errors from estimates of maximum wind speed in both methods, the observations were divided into training set, constituted of 31 years, and test, established by the last two years and calculated the mean square error of prediction and the mean absolute percentage error. Both methods were satisfactory, and the TS model more appropriate was SARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,1)12 with intervention. The highest frequency of wind gusts were observed between the months of September and February by the two methods, being this information extremely important at the urban planning and agricultural of the municipality of Piracicaba.