Influência do nível de desenvolvimento econômico e da eficácia do governo no spread bancário

Abstract

In this paper, the aim was to investigate how the level of economic development and government effectiveness are related to the financial intermediation spread. It analyzed 82 countries grouped by the level of economic development between the years 2010 to 2018. The research phenomenon was investigated by the positivist paradigm grounded in a realist ontology based on an objectivist epistemology. This study is characterized as quantitative as to approach, descriptive as to nature, and ex-post-facto as to procedures. To verify this relationship, econometric modeling of hierarchical linear regression with three levels was applied. First, the unconventional hierarchical model was estimated, which allowed verifying the proportion of the spread variance that is explained by the level of economic development. Then, the linear trend model with random intercepts was used, in order to investigate whether the time variable (year) is related to the spread behavior. Finally, a hierarchical linear model with three complete levels was estimated, which provided the analysis of the relationship between government effectiveness and the financial intermediation spread. It was observed, from the results of the unconventional model, that 33.96% of the variations in spreads are explained by the country's level of economic development. With the application of the linear trend model with random intercepts, it was found that the annual variation of the spread is statistically significant, with an estimated annual decrease parameter of -0.060 (coefficient of the Year variable), and that the proportion of variance is slightly higher than those obtained in the unconventional model (33.98%). Finally, as the main result of the estimation of the full model, it is noteworthy that the research variable government effectiveness index (IEG) showed a statistically significant relationship with the spread, with significance of 1%. The relationship is negative: the higher the IEG values, the lower the countries' spread level tends to be. These results indicate that the intermediation process is influenced by the country's level of economic development, and that the more effective the government is, the greater the country's economic stability tends to be, and the lower the spread levels tend to be. In terms of practical implications, the results of the study show that governments and monetary policy makers should cultivate a stable and efficient policy environment in order to reduce the social costs imposed by banks in the form of spreads. From an economic point of view, it is important to note that spread levels can impact the development of the economy in the long run, as it directly influences money flow. The evidence presented in this study contributes to increase knowledge about the determinants of the spread in financial intermediation.