Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
Title: Forecasting the number of vehicles thefts in Campinas
Other Titles: Brazil using a generalized linear autoregressive moving average model
Keywords: Ctuary
Glarma model
Vehicles thefts
Public policies
Issue Date: 2022
Publisher: Università del Salento
Citation: PALA, L. O. de O.; CARVALHO, M. de M.; SÁFADI, T. Forecasting the number of vehicles thefts in Campinas. Electronic Journal of Applied Statistical Analysis, [S. l.], v. 15, n. 1, p. 110-122, May 2022. DOI: 10.1285/i20705948v15n1p110.
Abstract: By definition, thefts are considered the act of taking away other people’s mobile possessions for personal use or for others, affecting crime rates, economic indicators and enabling recent studies to create risk zones in society, contributing to insurance pricing in actuarial methods. This paper analyzes the number of vehicle thefts of 38 locations near Campinas/S˜ao Paulo, Brazil, using a GLARMA(p,q) model with Poisson and Negative Binomial response. The main feature of GLARMA(p,q) is to consider the peculiarities of counting data as high dispersion. As a result, it was possible to verify the adequacy and usefulness of the model for counting data. With specific techniques for estimating time series related to the public security area, patterns can be better understood, revealing relevant information that can be added to decision-making processes to direct public policies.
Appears in Collections:DES - Artigos publicados em periódicos
DEX - Artigos publicados em periódicos

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
ARTIGO_Forecasting the number of vehicles thefts in Campinas.pdf794,89 kBAdobe PDFView/Open

This item is licensed under a Creative Commons License Creative Commons