Endividamento público dos municípios do estado de Minas Gerais: uma análise sob a ótica dos determinantes e dos indicadores financeiros

Abstract

Public debt is a relevant topic for both society and academia, given its importance in the public sphere and the impacts it can have on all levels of government. The theoretical support of this work is based on theories of public debt, highlighting the need to understand the functioning of public debt. After the redemocratization of 1988, municipalities showed an increase in their public debts, leading the federal government to implement fiscal control mechanisms, such as the Fiscal Responsibility Law, the Transparency Law, the Access to Information Law, the Golden Rule and the Tax Recovery Regime. In this sense, the objective of this study is to analyze the public debt of municipalities in Minas Gerais and its determinants, using the intermediate regions as a reference in the period from 2015 to 2022. The data was collected from the Brazilian Public Sector Accounting and Tax Information System (SICONFI) , available on the website of the National Treasury Secretariat (STN), and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). A mixed method was used, combining qualitative (systematic literature review) and quantitative (three-level multilevel regression model) approaches. The results revealed that the intermediate regions had a low level of debt, with municipalities of size 1 (up to 5,000 inhabitants), size 2 (from 5,001 to 10,000 inhabitants) and size 3 (from 10,001 to 20,000 inhabitants) being the most dependent . The results of the multilevel model (Debts per capita) showed that indicators such as Debt Level, Per Capita Revenue, Debt Interest and Debt Amortization are associated with an increase in per capita debts, while the Solvency Index, Debt Composition, Population and Pandemic showed an association with a decrease. The results of the study highlight the changes in the financial indicators of municipalities in Minas Gerais during the pandemic, including variations in per capita income and expenses, as well as in debt. The analysis showed that the majority of municipalities have low levels of debt, although there are disparities between regions and municipal sizes. The pandemic also had a significant impact on municipal spending, with a notable increase in the affected years. Furthermore, the study identified that certain indicators, such as per capita income and pandemic, had unexpected results, highlighting the need to consider the regional context when analyzing public debt.