Momento ótimo de substituição de povoamentos de Eucalyptus spp: o caso da tecnologia constante

Abstract

The few studies on renewal of Eucalyptus spp populations done in Brazil consider constant technology. This is done this way for facilitating the modeling of how variables affect this activity, such as income, costs, rates of discount and yield. The reason for not considering the gains earned through technological progress is the lack of a specific dynamic model. This study was carried out aiming to get to know the forest rotation with values from the sixties (beginning of tax exemption programme) and current values (nineties) aiming to obtain wood for cellulose and charcoal production; to determine the moment of substitution of a population which presents the same yield and the same cost structure through time as well as to determine how many cuttings should be done until the final cycle; to determine how many cuttings should be done until substitution (substitution chain); to verify the sensitivity of the substitution time to variations in the discount rates, wood prices, yield, land costs, harvesting costs and coppice yield. The results were tested in a case study, employing the Gompertz Function to determine the population yield. The Current Net Value Method was used as a crieterion of economic decision. It has been concluded that: The forest rotation to produce charcoal in the sixties was at 13 years of age; the current rotation is at 7 years of age; the final cycle allows up to 13 cuttings, but considering the possibility of land leasing, the best alternative is to conduce the sproutings up to the third cutting; an increase in factors such as discount rates, wood prices and yield caused reduction of the cutting age; increase in land costs did not affect the cutting ages; increase in the logging cost increased the cutting ages; the substitution of population now a days happens after 3 cuttings, while in the sixties it happened after 2 cuttings due to the lesser loss; an increase in factors such as discount rates, wood prices, logging costs and coppice yield increased the number of cuttings before the substitution and increase in the yield caused reduction of the substitution age (number of cuttings).