Variabilidade espaço-temporal do conforto térmico humano para o Estado de Minas Gerais, Brasil

Abstract

The objective of this study was to perform the bioclimatic zoning of comfort and thermal discomfort for humans in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, considering historical and future scenarios. Historical series (1961 to 2017) of the minimum (ETWmin, oC), mean (ETWavg, oC) and maximum (ETWmax, oC) effective temperature index as a function of the wind were obtained as a function of the monthly mean values of the minimum (tbs min, oC), compensated (tbs comp, oC) and maximum (tbs max, oC) dry-bulb temperature, relative humidity (RU, %) and wind speed (V, m s-1), available in 34 meteorological stations. The Mann-Kendall test was applied to the historical series for trend analysis. ETWmin, ETWavg and ETWmax values were simulated for future scenarios (for years 2028 and 2038). Geostatistical analyzes based on historical and future values were applied for generation of effective temperature index as a function of wind (ETW) maps. In general, the results evidenced heating trends for the next two decades. The autumn and winter seasons tending to thermal sensations of human comfort in a larger territorial dimension, especially in the mesoregions Central de Minas, Metropolitana de Belo Horizonte, South / Southwest of Minas, Campos das Vertentes and Zona da Mata. The summer and spring seasons have provisions for moderately warm climates, with respect to areas of the Mesoregions of the TrianguloMineiro, Northwest and North of Minas, Jequitinhonha and Vale do Mucuri.