Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://repositorio.ufla.br/jspui/handle/1/40220
metadata.artigo.dc.title: Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period
metadata.artigo.dc.creator: Kissler, Stephen M.
Tedijanto, Christine
Goldstein, Edward
Grad, Yonatan H.
Lipsitch, Marc
metadata.artigo.dc.subject: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
SARS-CoV-2 - Model of transmission
metadata.artigo.dc.publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
metadata.artigo.dc.date.issued: Apr-2020
metadata.artigo.dc.identifier.citation: KISSLER, S. M. et al. Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period. Science, [S.l.], Apr. 2020.
metadata.artigo.dc.description.abstract: It is urgent to understand the future of severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. We used estimates of seasonality, immunity, and cross-immunity for betacoronaviruses OC43 and HKU1 from time series data from the USA to inform a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave. Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded. To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022. Additional interventions, including expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic, would improve the success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity. Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.
metadata.artigo.dc.identifier.uri: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793
http://repositorio.ufla.br/jspui/handle/1/40220
metadata.artigo.dc.language: en_US
Appears in Collections:FCS - Artigos sobre Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

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