Pecuária bovina de corte no Brasil: análise de políticas e mercado

Abstract

The beef cattle industry is an activity of great social and economic importance to the country. However, it has presented serious problems. Among other things to be pointed out, the nauonal cattle breeding, is in general an activity of extensive character, with traditional production techniques. Besides, there are supply and price oscillations, phenomena that are due te the shorter supply in the between-harvest period, and to the cattle breeding cycle. Among the Federal Government intervention mechamsms m the national cattle breeding, the policies of regulating stocks and beef meat export were privileged. However, the main constrain to these policies is that they didn't do anything about iong term production stabilization. In this work an econometric model was developed to study the reality of the national cattle breeding. Functions of supply, demand, prices and foreign demand were estimated. They took mto consideration macroeconomic polities related to regulatina stocks and export. The study was based on annual series of secondary data, from 1970 to 1987 period. The beef meat supply equation presented the following characteristics: In supply = 5,4993 + 0,2634 In meat price(t) - 0,1305 In meat price, -v + 0,2677 In beef herd(t) - 0,2835 In low weight cattle price(t_1) + 0,4857 In milk price(t) The beef meat supply price elasticity coefficient indicated that the existance of low response of supply in rela tion to prices. The eroded beef price was taken as indicator of the cattle breeding cycle. The beef herd coefficient suggests that the cattle farmers are keeping animais to increase the size of the herd. The coefficient of the variable "low weight cattle price" indicated that the rise in its price influence negati velly the supply. The milk production acts as an activity complementary to meat production. The beef meat demand equation presented the folio wing characteristics: In demand = 4,1690 - 0,2505 In meat price(t) + 0,4064 In population income(t) + 0,0974 regulating stocks^t) + 0,3122 In chicken price,. , The elasticity coefficient - beef demand price indicated that the demand is inelastic to price in the short term, The rise "per capita" income induces a demand growth less proportional than the income increase. The results indicated that the variable beef meat regulating stocks contributed to a more stable demand. The elasticity coefficient of beef meat demand crossed price with respect to chicken price suggests that a rise in chicken prices tend to transfer consumers to demand beef. The beef prices equation presented the following characteristics: In prices = 10.9945 + 0.2791 In meat price,t_5v - 2.6395 In beef herd, , + 0.3867 In low weight cattle price,. .» + + 2.6988 In population income, , - 0.2934 regulating stocks (t The beef prices are influenced by previously formed price tendencies. The beef herd variable coefficient indicates that the animal flow to slaughter house has influenced meat prices more than proportionally. It was verified that the rise in costs represented by the low weight cattle price variable,as well as, an increase of income, implies a growth on meat prices. As to the regulating stocks variable it was verified that the existance of inverted relation between stocks and beef meat prices. The beef meat foreign demand equation presented the following characteristics: In exports = 38.4645 - 1.4369 In export prices, . - 3.3159 In domestic consumption, .» The results indicated the existance of an inverse relationship between domestic consumption and beef export volume. It was verified that the fali in export prices is conditional upon the rise in exported volume.The evidences of this work suggest that the policy of regulating stocks has influenced the growth of beef cattle industry and regulating stocks as well as beef export were important to determine the market strategies of the frigorific sector. This work suggests that it is desirable that the cattleman organizes an information system to improve the levei of knowledge about the market and yet, they should participate in friforigics cooperatives to develop differentiated markets to beef.