Análise do risco socioeconômico em territórios: um estudo para os municípios mineiros com presença de Major Hazard Installations (MHIs) do tipo mineração

Abstract

Due to events that trigger danger, such as disorderly urban growth, the intensification of industrial activities, environmental catastrophes and social inequalities, socioeconomic risk has gained prominence in contemporary society. Understanding and analyzing this risk in territories is relevant for both the public and private sectors, as its management can help minimize the vulnerabilities of the territory, in its most diverse dimensions, in addition to strengthening economic resilience, mitigating possible harmful impacts to a location if it is affected by the occurrence of a hazard. To analyze the socioeconomic risk in territories, this work focuses on mining Major Hazard Installations (MHIs). The sample will be made up of 853 municipalities in Minas Gerais, intensive state in this activity. Given the risks established in territories with the presence of mining MHIs, one of the hypotheses is that there could be an increase in their vulnerability, given by exposure to risk, and a consequent reduction in their resilience. In contrast, another hypothesis suggests that the presence of these organizations tends to generate positive externalities for local development. This work is therefore aimed at analyzing and discussing these hypotheses, referenced by the following question: what are the determinants of socioeconomic risk in Minas Gerais territories with the presence of mining-type MHIs, in the dimensions of vulnerability and economic resilience? Specifically, the aim is to: identify and characterize Minas Gerais territories, through the axes of sustainability; investigate the determinants for the establishment of mining MHIs in these territories; and analyze the determinants of economic resilience and vulnerability in these locations. The following steps will be taken: i) organization of the secondary database with reference to the sustainability axes; ii) factor analysis for each identified characterization axis; iii) Propensity-Score Matching (PSM) using the binary variable presence or absence of mining-type MHIs and as outcome variables the factors of each axis and the most representative variables of each factor. The political, socioeconomic factors 1; ecological 1 and 2; and environmental factor 2 were related to the presence of mining MHI in a territory. Political and environmental factors 2 have a negative relationship with the presence of these companies. In contrast, the presence of mining MHIs showed a positive relationship with socioeconomic factors 1 and ecological factors 1 and 2. The results demonstrated that municipalities that have mining companies in their territory have higher GDP per capita than those that do not have them. In this way, the presence of these companies tends to make the territory more resilient and less vulnerable from a socioeconomic perspective. The results demonstrated that municipalities that have mining companies in their territory have higher GDP per capita than those that do not have them. In this way, the presence of these companies tends to make the territory more resilient and less vulnerable from a socioeconomic perspective. The results demonstrated that municipalities that have mining companies in their territory have higher GDP per capita than those that do not have them. In this way, the presence of these companies tends to make the territory more resilient and less vulnerable from a socioeconomic perspective.