Análise de investimento de um sistema agroflorestal sob situação de risco

Abstract

Agroforestry System is the ecological and economical interaction of the use of the land, with the combination of agriculture, livestock and forest production, in temporary sequence and in a simultaneous way. The studies of investments in projects assume the existence of risks and uncertainties. An alternative to reduce the risk in the forest investment is the association with the agricultural. This work analyzed the situations of risk of a system agroflorestal. Monte Carlo s method comes from the theory of simulations and stands out as a powerful and useful tool to provide a distribution of probabilities for the analysis of decision. A total of 10,000 interactions of the Net Present Value (VPL), of Internal Rate of Return (TIR) and of the Equivalent Periodic Benefit (BPE) were made in order to establish the probability distribution. The results presented 78.65% of chance of VPL being US$ 1,410.00; 77.56% of chance of TIR being 36.36%, and; 75.39% of chance of BPE being US$ 309.70; the agroforestry system presented low investment risk; and the livestock is the main product of the agrossilvopastoril system, followed by charcoal.