Bayesian analysis of dynamic factor models using multivariate T distribution

Abstract

The multivariate t models are symmetric and have heavier tail than the normal distribution and produce robust inference procedures for applications. In this paper, the Bayesian estimation of a dynamic factor model is presented, where the factors follow a multivariate autoregressive model, using the multivariate t distribution. Since the multivariate t distribution is complex, it was represented in this work as a mix of the multivariate normal distribution and a square root of a chi-square distribution. This method allowed the complete dene of all the posterior distributions. The inference on the parameters was made taking a sample of the posterior distribution through a Gibbs Sampler. The convergence was veried through graphical analysis and the convergence diagnostics of Geweke (1992) and Raftery and Lewis (1992).