Variabilidade temporal e modulação local das tendências térmicas no sul de Moçambique

Abstract

This dissertation, structured in two scientific articles, analyses the thermal response of climate and human thermal comfort in southern Mozambique over the period 1993–2023. The first article investigates trends in daily maximum (𝑇𝑚𝑎𝑥) and minimum (𝑇𝑚𝑖𝑛) air temperature at nine meteorological stations distributed along a coastal–inland gradient, using series subjected to quality control, gap-filling and trend analysis with the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator at annual and seasonal scales. The results reveal significant warming at urban and coastal stations, contrasted with signals of cooling at one rural inland station, indicating strong local modulation of the regional warming signal. The second article uses a subset of five stations with complete meteorological series to derive energy-balance-based thermal comfort indices (PET and SET) and empirical indices (ITU, IDH and ITEV), characterizing the climatology of thermal comfort and long-term trends in thermal stress. The findings highlight a coastal “thermal shield”, with lower variability and more stable extremes compared with inland conditions and show that empirical indices may overestimate or mask trends when compared with PET. Taken together, the results provide a scientific basis for climate adaptation actions, urban planning and the management of health risks and cold stress in rural environments.