Modelagem computacional da propagação da Leishmaniose Visceral Canina utilizando o modelo Penna

Abstract

Visceral Leishmaniasis has become an important public health problem in different countries. This neglected disease affects several species such as human begins and dogs, the latter being considered the main reservoir of the disease in urban areas. In order to get a better understanding of the disease spread, an algorithm based on Penna model was proposed in this work to describe the population dynamics of the disease-spreading insect. The Penna model is based on mutation accumulation theories and natural selection, which allows to describe biological aging of living organisms and to include intrinsic characteristics of the vectors. A spatial structure via cellular automata was incorporated in the model building, which aims to reproduce temporal and spatial interactions between vectors and reservoirs of the disease. In this work, two different groups of dogs, domestic and street dogs, were inserted in the model, whose groups differ in relation to locomotion in the automata. The use of collars impregnated with insecticide, which inhibit the contact of vectors with the reservoirs, was inserted in the system as a control strategy. The results obtained show that street dogs potentiated the disease spread in the automata and lower percentages of infected dogs were registered in populations composed of domestic dogs exclusively. There was also a reduction in the percentage of infected dogs in all simulated scenarios at certain time points when the collars were used. Therefore, the influence of the population configuration of reservoirs and the use of collars on the number of infected dogs over time were verified, showing the importance of physical and environmental factors in the disease control strategies planning.