Impactos das mudanças climáticas sobre o comportamento das secas em uma bacia hidrogáfica tropical altamente antropizada

Abstract

Climate change has caused significant changes in hydrological responses due to the increased frequency and intensity of extreme events. Between 2013 and 2015, the Paraopeba River Basin, an important tributary of the São Francisco River, faced one of the most severe droughts in the last 70 years. Given the Given the socioeconomic and environmental importance of the basin, this study aimed to evaluate the hydrological responses of the basin to climate change, using the Global Climate Models ACCESS-ESM1-5, TaiESM1, CMCC-ESM2, MPI-ESM1-2-LR-1, NorESM2-MM, MRI-ESM2-0 and CanESM5, based on two analyses: verification of drought patterns, characterised by the SPI and SPEI indices; ii) analysis of the permanence curve, reference flows using the Distributed Hydrological Model of the National Institute for Space Research (MHD-INPE). The baseline period covered the years 1992–2014. Two socioeconomic forcing scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) were used, distributed for the future period 2040-2100: 2040. The results of the drought indices indicated a trend towards intensification and prolongation of dry periods, especially under the SSP585 scenario. The flow simulations showed consistent reductions in minimum flows and increases in maximum flows.