Modeling of coronavirus spread in morocco using statistical approach: SIR model

Abstract

The recently emerged Covid-19 virus has caused more than 65,872,391 infections and 1,523, 656 deaths up to December 8, 2020 worldwide. The disease continues to spread in all countries. The use of mathematical models in public health plays an important role in many aspects, such as rapid visualization of epidemiological information, monitoring, forecasting and estimating the spread of disease, and assisting in decision-making on pandemic prevention and control. The objective of this study is to show the role of SIR model in predicting the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Moroccan kingdom and to estimate the time necessary for its disappearance. Thus, the results found following the use of the SIR model are almost similar to the results obtained by the Minister of Health in Morocco, so far we notice the rapid spread of this disease and 13August 2021, the Covid-19 will be 0 confirmed cases. Thus, the calculation of the basic reproduction number R0 gave a value of 2.003 which shows that the number of infected people does not stop increasing until a vaccine for this virus is found. In this case, the respect of the rules of hygiene and containment can lower the value of R0 and the spread of pandemic.