Hydrological prediction in a tropical watershed dominated by oxisols using a distributed hydrological model

Abstract

Hydrological models have been used in many places of the world in order to support practitioners with respect to watershed management actions. The goal of this research was to apply the Lavras Simulation of Hydrology (LASH model) to a Brazilian tropical watershed dominated by Oxisols, to estimate maximum, minimum and mean stream flows for both current land-use (“scenario 1”) and other regional trend land-use scenarios (“scenario 2”—pasture into eucalyptus; and “scenario 3”—eucalyptus into pasture). This model is a continuous, distributed and semi-conceptual model for simulation of different hydrological components on a daily basis. The model had a good performance with respect to the “scenario 1”, resulting in Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients equal to 0.81, 0.82 and 0.98 for minimum, maximum and mean discharges, respectively. When “scenario 2” was simulated, it was found that minimum, mean and maximum stream flows had their values reduced in average by 7.39 %, 13.84 % and 20.38 %, respectively. On the contrary, it was observed in “scenario 3” an increase in average by 0.23 %, 0.44 % and 1.19 % for minimum, mean and maximum stream flows, respectively. With respect to water yield, scenario 2 resulted in a mean reduction of 119 mm, whereas for scenario 3 the difference was not so pronounced in relation to the current land use. Results obtained in scenario 2 are troublesome since this watershed drains into an important regional Hydroelectric Power Plant Reservoir and this approach needs to be considered by the Minas Gerais State electric energy company for its planning strategies for the future.