Avaliação do potencial de soluções climáticas naturais para o balanço zero de emissões de gases de efeito estufa em reservatórios

Abstract

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from artificial reservoirs have increasingly been recognized as a relevant source of atmospheric carbon, particularly in urban and peri-urban contexts. This study aimed to assess the potential of nature-based climate solutions (NbCS) to mitigate net GHG emissions in two major reservoirs of the São Paulo Metropolitan Region: Billings and Guarapiranga. The methodological approach integrated a multitemporal analysis of land use and land cover (1985 to 2023), using data from MapBiomas, and the delineation of priority areas for ecological restoration based on shapefiles from the Rural Environmental Registry (CAR), Permanent Preservation Areas (APP), and Conservation Units (UCs), with the exclusion of land categories with consolidated use or low restoration feasibility. Annual reservoir emissions were estimated using the G-res Tool, while the potential carbon uptake by forest formations was calculated based on empirical equations from scientific literature, stratified by the successional stage of secondary vegetation. The results indicated a significant imbalance between the net emissions from the reservoirs and the current carbon sequestration capacity of the surrounding vegetation. However, the mapping of degraded areas with high restoration potential revealed substantial opportunities for implementing NbCS, which could effectively contribute to advancing towards net-zero emissions in the study area. This research highlights the importance of integrating field data, remote sensing, and spatial modeling in the planning of nature-based climate strategies, especially in urban territories under anthropogenic pressure. The findings also support the formulation of public policies focused on ecological restoration, ecosystem services, and local environmental governance.