Dinâmica da importação de fertilizantes pelo mercado brasileiro no período de 1997 a 2023

Abstract

Fertilizers are essential chemical substances for plant development and productivity, serving as a fundamental input for maintaining food security. As one of the world's leading agricultural producers, Brazil stands out as a significant consumer of fertilizers. Approximately 80% of the fertilizers used in the country are imported, which exposes domestic producers to market volatility and supply uncertainties. Recent events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, have reignited debates about Brazil’s heavy dependence on the international fertilizer market and raised concerns regarding fertilizer imports within its national agribusiness systems (SAGs).In this context, the main objective of this study was to identify and analyze the factors responsible for changes in fertilizer import flows to Brazil. To achieve this, import data from the principal countries supplying the domestic market were examined. Analyses were conducted separately for each fertilizer group—nitrogen-based, phosphate-based, potash-based, and compound formulations—as well as for total imports within each group. The data analysis was performed using the Time Series Regression with ARIMA Noise, Missing Observations, and Outliers (TRAMO) program, an extension of the Gretl software.The findings revealed that institutional, economic, and production-related factors exerted both positive and negative effects on fertilizer import flows. Institutional factors that contributed to increased imports included the progressive liberalization of the Chinese market; the enforcement of the Free Trade Agreement between Mercosur and Egypt; the strengthening of bilateral relations between Brazil and Morocco—particularly following a delegation visit by the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock; and the repercussions of the Russia–Ukraine conflict, which heightened concerns over supply shortages. Economic factors encompassed favorable terms of trade and reductions in export tariffs. Production-related factors associated with increased imports included insufficient domestic fertilizer supplies and the expansion of cultivated areas for certain crops. Conversely, factors contributing to a decline in imports included institutional aspects such as the Russia–Ukraine conflict, which led to rising prices, reduced fertilizer availability, and trade sanctions that disrupted supply chains. Economic factors included the appreciation of the U.S. dollar, increases in base interest rates, producer default, and financial decapitalization. Production-related factors contributing to reduced imports included the contraction of planted areas for specific crops and elevated stock levels.The findings of this dissertation underscore the significant influence of various events on fertilizer import flows. Consequently, stakeholders within Brazilian agribusiness systems must remain vigilant to mitigate the risks of supply shortages. Furthermore, the Brazilian government should prioritize strengthening trade agreements with supplier countries and invest in initiatives to bolster domestic fertilizer production.