Relação de longo prazo entre o consumo anual residencial de energia elétrica e o Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano no Brasil: uma análise mediante conceito de cointegração

Abstract

Studying the consumption and demand for electricity is of vital importance for the economicdevelopment of a country. In this sense, this work seeks to analyze the time series ofresidential electrical power consumption and the value of the human development index in Brazil considering annual values in the period between 1990 and 2018, as well as investigatingthe possible long-term relationship between them, through the concept of cointegration. Thus,first, the aforementioned series were found to be first-order stationary using the augmentedDickey and Fuller (ADF) test. In a second step, Johansen's cointegration procedure confirms thatthere is evidence that both series have a long-term relationship, since the hypothesis thatthere is an integration vector cannot be rejected. The Engle-Granger cointegration procedurepresents a p-value lower than the considered significance level (namely, a=0,05) in theresiduals of the model estimated by the method of ordinary least squares, providing evidencethat both series have a long-term relationship.