Investimento, regulamentação e mercado: uma análise de risco no setor elétrico

Abstract

In our study we have made a multidiscipline analytical approach in order to examine some questions of Investment in the Electric Power Industry. Concerning this prospect, the several analysis made were divided into three different areas for discussion: market structure, regulation process and the risk assessment. Such categories were then delineated for the purposes of the context of investment in risk conditions. The knowledge on the market structure, for instance, would be substantial for anticipating the possible problems of uncertainty and to direct the preventive measures which make possible to keep the built-in value of a project. However, we highlight that the term "market" used in this text has two different meanings. The first one would lead us to the degree of competition existing into the electric power sector. In that case, we notice that the position of industry balance would be the result of the market structure and the variables which compete for the unbalance of the price system. Besides, particularly, the regulation corresponds to a key element which guarantees the results. However, we remark that for kinds of hybrid systems where different interests are combined there may be disagreement especially on the choice and application of some methods, as concerning the price formation as well as the valuation of the "expectations". Now, for the second meaning, we will consider the capital market, which is frequently used for the purpose of opportunity cost valuation. Here, our main goal was to examine the possible incompatibilities of its calculation. That is, the different values of the estimated capital arisen during our investigation would be related to questions involving the intertemporal dynamics fact and to behavioral aspects such as the ex-ante usage of some supposition based in heterogeneous expectations. Regarding the risk behavior valuation, we conclude that the companies which constituted the Electric Power Index at the time of our study would be having a "moderate" behavior, so to speak, comparing to some sections, and also relating to some more specific indexes listed in BOVESPA. Indeed, these results have as well been strengthened by some previous analysis - financial ones- which had shown that the electric power companies would not be excelling at the expectations of the profitability of capital. And among the said reasons, the first hypothesis would fall on the excessive "dosage" by the regulator of the current model of regulation and control of power of monopoly . The second one would deal with the applicability of the asset-pricing model and some methodological divergences which certainly would result in relative differences of precision, in search of an appropriate measurement of the expected values for the cost of capital. Finally, we assert that the notion of accuracy would be related not only to the degree of market informational efficiency and/or technical capability but would also depend on certain behavioral standards for the risk assessment. Therefore, the way of conducting the application of mechanism of balance must be taken into account in case of occurrence of the so required regulatory interventions.