Zoneamento da ocorrência do distúrbio fisiológico do eucalipto em território brasileiro

Abstract

Eucalyptus is a forest species of high economic importance in Brazil, with its woody biomass being used in a variety of industries, providing employment and income. However, since the mid-2000s, the forestry sector has faced an emerging challenge: eucalyptus physiological disturbance (DFE), whose causes are still unknown. Studies suggest that this disturbance may be related to abiotic factors, particularly local climatic conditions, including extreme events and climate changes. When combined with different genotypes, this can lead to significant changes in plant physiology and interfere with its normal development. In this study, statistical methods coupled with new machine learning tools were employed to investigate the relationship between climatic variables and DFE. This allowed the identification of five variables strongly associated with the disturbance, which, when used as explanatory variables in a logistic regression model, generated 99.8% predictive accuracy of the probability of disturbance incidence in different regions of Brazil. Using historical data on DFE occurrence in different regions and climate predictions up to 2080, it was possible to predict that the incidence of physiological disturbance will decrease over the years. The ability to predict regions where the disturbance may or may not occur is valuable information for companies in the forestry sector, allowing for a more rational allocation of tolerant and susceptible genotypes to DFE in future eucalyptus plantations in Brazil.