Análise da influência de fatores climáticos na epidemia de dengue nas cidades de Cuiabá (MT) e Lavras (MG)

Abstract

Dengue is a major public health problems in world. It is estimated that some 2.5 billion people are now at risk of dengue. Given this current context of disease develop a time series model in attempt to identify the climatic factors contribute to the spread of dengue fever in the cities of Lavras (Minas Gerais) and Cuiabá (Mato Grosso). The series for analysis were the number of reported cases of Dengue, a series of minimum temperature, average and maximum relative humidity and rainfall in the city of Lavras Cuiabá and consider the series of the number of reported cases of dengue and minimum temperature series and maximum rate and found the pluviométrico. We found the models that best fit the data according to Box and Jenkins methodology. The regression model that was the dependent variable as residue dengue cases and the independent variables being the waste of models of climate variables. In Cuiabá, precipitation and maximum temperature have an influence the number of dengue cases. Already in Lavras, in addition to precipitation, maximum temperature, also influenced the number of dengue cases and the average temperature moisture. The coefficients of determination R 2, in Cuiabá and Lavras were R2 0.31 and R2 of 0.68, respectively. In the second set to Lavras consider the series of maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation with a R2 of 0.67 and the maximum temperature and precipitation continued to influence the number of dengue cases. It was not possible to propose a single model to explain the behavior of the number of cases of dengue for the two cities. This can be strongly related to climate variability. However, both models have a common component, which is the influence of maximum temperature with a delay of four months.