Zoneamento agroclimático e de mecanização para culturas do café arábica e da cana-de-açúcar no estado de Minas Gerais sob cenários de mudanças climáticas

Abstract

Brazil is currently the world’s largest producer of Arabica coffee and sugarcane. The state of Minas Gerais is the largest producer of Arabica coffee and the second largest producer of sugarcane, both of which are of great local economic relevance. This study aims to perform agroclimatic zoning and mechanization of Arabica coffee and sugarcane in the current and fu- ture climate change scenarios for the state of Minas Gerais. Downscaled climatic surfaces, soil AWC mapping, and a mechanization possibility product were used. The state’s municipal grid was used in the mappings and multiple simultaneous classes were used to facilitate visualization and location. The results indicated a good presence of land suitable for sugarcane and Arabica coffee in the current scenario. Regarding sugarcane, 8.11 million hectares were climatically sui- table and mechanized. For Arabica coffee, 2.57 million hectares were classified as climatically suitable and mechanizable. However, in future climate change scenarios, a reduction in suitable zones was observed, affecting Arabica coffee crops more intensely. Sugarcane crops were more vulnerable to increased water shortages in climate change scenarios, while Arabica coffee was mainly affected by rising temperatures. It was observed that the use of geocomputation in R showed great potential, and the study can be replicated for other regions and agricultural crops. The results can be used in the context of state agricultural planning, in addition to providing support for producers in the current and future scenarios.