Projeção econômica e dos custos em propriedades leiteiras familiares

Abstract

Economic analyzes are tools that allow to understand future behavior of economic results. Practices of predictability of economic results need more real analysis, without the interference of the currency value over time, so that it is possible to minimize the risks of erroneous and distant inferences from the realities of a dairy property. The objective was to analyze the economic results of two dairy farms in family farming from 2011 to 2017, aiming at a projection from 2018 to 2030. The data were collected directly from the properties analyzed and updated, using the IGP-M (FGV) as an indexing index. Subsequently, mathematical calculations were made to project the annual economic results of each of the properties. Property 2 presented satisfactory results, when the years 2011 to 2017 were analyzed, but it did not exceed the results obtained by Property 1. The growth rate of Property 1 indicated an upward behavior both in the analyzed historical series (2011 to 2017) and in the economic projection developed (2018 to 2030). The economic projection indicated that Property 2 would possibly not be able to obtain economic results that would make dairy farming viable in the long run. The main factor identified in the favorable (Property 1) and unfavorable (Property 2) perspectives seems to be linked to the scale of production, being the indicator that most differed between them.