Eco-carbon corridor optimization modeling: um modelo destinado ao planejamento estratégico da paisagem e estoques de carbono

Abstract

Brazilian tropical forests, particularly the Cerrado biome, have been gradually replaced by agricultural and industrial purposes. Due to the socioeconomic nature of these actions, a limitation has been established in the ability of a large portion of society to perceive the resilience of this important habitat in the future. On the other hand, the persistence of degradation processes and the replacement of the Cerrado by other land uses have raised increasing concern, especially among populations living in rural areas in direct contact with this vegetation. In this context, the objective of this study was to develop and test a territorial planning model capable of maximizing future carbon stock and ecological landscape connectivity in medium and long-term scenarios under ecological and budgetary constraints. To this end, the Eco-Carbon Corridor Optimization Modeling (ECCOM) framework was developed using artificial intelligence. The model, based on the Prize-Collecting Steiner Tree Problem, has the ability to integrate priority native vegetation patches into an ecologically connected network, aiming at the conservation and enhancement of carbon stock, as well as the strengthening of gene flow among wildlife populations, when feasible. In addition, ECCOM is coupled with information derived from Cellular Automata modeling, demonstrating versatility in the generation of ad hoc future scenarios and supporting territorial planning oriented toward climate change mitigation, with optimized conservation of native habitats. To test the prototype, an optimized ecological network was designed for an umbrella wildlife species, Tapirus terrestris. The basis for the construction of this network relied on structural and functional ecological connectivity indices for the species, generated in in the software Graphab and incorporated into a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis framework. Subsequently, the quality of the connections was assessed through an omnidirectional electrical network simulated in the software Circuitscape, in which areas with higher electrical current indicated preferential movement routes for Tapirus terrestris. The objective function of ECCOM consists of maximizing carbon stock within a single, functional network of patches, incorporating into its mathematical formulation the outputs from Circuitscape, the costs associated with assisted regeneration for the establishment of ecological corridors, and variable budget constraints of US$400 thousand, US$1 million, and US$3 million, over a six-year planning horizon (2025– 2030). The combination of these three budgets with scenarios with and without penalization for excessively low-quality, low-current corridors resulted in six prospective scenarios for the year 2040. During the analysis stage, the model exhibited promising performance, showing higher efficiency in lower-cost scenarios, particularly in the scenario in which the Price-Collecting Steiner Tree Problem was applied with penalization. In summary, ECCOM demonstrated a significant reduction in emissions relative to the baseline and additional CO2 removal compared to the initial year of 2024, standing out as a robust and high-potential tool for ecological restoration planning, biodiversity conservation, and climate change mitigation in the Brazilian Cerrado.