Fire behavior predicting models efficiency in brazilian commercial eucalypt plantations

Abstract

Knowing how a wildfire will behave is extremely important in order to assist in fire suppression and prevention operations. Since the 1940’s mathematical models to estimate how the fire will behave have been developed worldwide, however, none of them, until now, had their efficiency tested in Brazilian commercial eucalypt plantations nor in other vegetation types in the country. This study aims to verify the accuracy of the Rothermel (1972) fire spread model, the Byram (1959) flame length model, and the fire spread and length equations derived from the McArthur (1962) control burn meters. To meet these objectives, 105 experimental laboratory fires were done and their results compared with the predicted values from the models tested. The Rothermel and Byram models predicted better than McArthur’s, nevertheless, all of them underestimated the fire behavior aspects evaluated and were statistically different from the experimental data.