Avaliação dos casos de covid-19, durante a pandemia causada pelo novo coronavírus, no município de Lavras, Minas Gerais

Abstract

A new variant of coronavirus, called Sars-CoV-2, was identified from an outbreak of pneumonia recorded in December 2019 in the municipality of Wuhan, China. Infected humans had subclinical infections, no symptoms or the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome called Covid-19. Until May 18, 2021, there were about 163,212,543 million cases and 3,383,979 million deaths from the disease in the world and, due to the spread of the virus, it became a pandemic. Sars-CoV-2 is transmitted to the individual through small droplets and aerosols, dispersed through coughing, speaking or sneezing, or through contaminated surfaces and fomites. Even with some prevention and control measures already recognized internationally, understanding the spatial dynamics of the disease at a local scale is a crucial measure for understanding the dynamics of transmission and, consequently, instituting coping measures. In this sense, the objective was to evaluate the expansion of Covid-19 in the municipality of Lavras - MG. The incidence of cases and deaths was monitored by Covid-19, followed by georeferencing with the elaboration of Kernel density estimates. The data were evaluated together with information and epidemiological indicators of the disease. The analysis of the spatial distribution of the Covid-19 cases allows us to conclude that the epidemic in Lavras did not originate from a focal point, but from several isolated cases from which the virus dispersed. The assessment of the distribution of cases and clusters showed that there is no fixed pattern of higher density of cases and deaths, but changes in points of higher density over the course of the pandemic. Deaths are not concentrated in areas with specific geographic and demographic characteristics, but are dispersed in the municipality. Lethality by Covid-19 is higher in elderly men. The incidence of Covid-19 and lethality for Covid-19 have been following an upward pattern since January 2021. From the results of cases and deaths, it was possible to visualize on a map the places with the highest density per square meter (m2), enabling the identification of areas with the greatest risk of transmission. The results generated may support Covid-19's surveillance, monitoring and control actions in the municipality of Lavras-MG.