Análise de risco aplicada a rotação e a reforma de povoamentos de eucalipto

Abstract

The definition of the proper time to harvest and reform Eucalyptus stands is important when the forest manager aims maximum profit in the activity. This document goal is to determine the economic rotation and the optimal time to replace Eucalyptus stands at three different sites, under risk conditions. In the economic analysis were considered several factors or risk variables that affect the economic rotation and reform, also, several possibilities of wood sales for charcoal production. The financial indicator or output variable assessed was Net Present Value, calculated in an infinite planning horizon. The main conclusions of the study were: the economic rotation was six, seven and eight years for sites I, II and III, respectively; adding value to wood did not affect the economic rotation but did influence the economic viability and activity risk; anticipating or postponing the economic rotation reduced profits and increased the risk of turning the activity economically infeasible; The variables wood price and interest rate caused the greatest direct and inverse impacts on the profitability of the forest activity, respectively. The stand reform must be done after three harvests in sites II and III; The reform must be done after three harvests in site I only if the wood is sold by stumpage, and after two harvests if sold in the stand or carbonization plant; in more productive sites the value added to wood tended to reduce the number of cuts to be made in Eucalyptus stands before reform; the price of wood had the greatest direct effect on the profitability of forestry activity, while the interest rate caused the greatest inverse effect.