Retornos e riscos na comercialização de café em Minas Gerais

Abstract

The purpose of this work is to analyze the return and risk in the commercialization of coffee through the physical and future market and CPR, in areas of the South of Minas, savannah and the Zona da Mata Mineira. Thus, the general objective of the research consisted of analyzing the profitability of the physical CPR and of the future market of coffee along with the physical market by verifying its efficiency in what refers to as surcharge payment, the risks and alternatives of financing coffee growing. In this light, to show the results, the standard deviation was used to measure the risk factor. To calculate the profitability, the Sharpe and Jensen index were used. The data is based on time series daily prices of coffee in the future markets and the CPR during the period from 1997 to 2004. This information is available through BM&F and the Brazilian Bank which work with data in two distinct periods, at the time of planting and the time before harvesting, before expiration of the contract. The research was developed through a quantitative investigation. The empiric results demonstrate that commercialization through CPR and the future market, offer a positive return for the risk assumed in the negotiation through those markets, seeing that these risks present low values, and with higher profitability at that time before harvest with each area presenting different periods to better negotiate the coffee. It can be concluded that among the forms of analyzed commercialization, the best strategy for the producer is negotiate the coffee in agreement with the area of production, disposition to run the risks and necessity, but whenever possible to address sales through the CPR and the future market during the time before harvesting.