Sensibilidade das políticas monetária, fiscal e cambial no combate à inflação no Brasil

Abstract

The current form of conducting the Brazilian economic policy has as main objective the inflation control, and the interest rate the main instrument of monetary policy used by the Central Bank to stabilize inflation in the long run. Several researchers have debated and investigated the effectiveness of the Brazilian monetary policy, following the premise that increases in the Selic rate would not be the most effective way to fight inflation. This study aims to determine the sensitivity of fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies to fight inflation in Brazil, empirically investigating whether monetary policy has really the greatest impact on inflation in the long run. For it, it was estimated a Vector Error Correction model (VEC). According to the results, the main variables that affect inflation in the long run are the internal public debt and monetary agerado (M4). It is also high the sensitivity-exchange of the inflation.The IPCA showed little sensitivity in the long term changes in the Selic rate. Although it presents itself as the main policy instrument in guiding the regime of inflation targets, changes in the interest rate have not been decisive in long-term inflation control.