Efeitos da temperatura sobre a soja e milho no Estado de Mato Grosso do Sul

Abstract

The influence of climate on agriculture has been constantly discussed in the academic setting. In this context, the results presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show that the sector most affected is agriculture. Brazil has an important role in this context, as a major world agricultural producer. The objective of this article is to verify the effects, without taking into account the production of the grains of each crop, but the minimum temperature on corn and soybean crops in the municipalities of Campo Grande, Chapadão do Sul, Dourados, Maracaju and São Gabriel do West in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul from 2008 to 2014, where the most recurrent probability of temperature is 5ºC to 14ºC. It was observed that there is great variability of temperature in Campo Grande of 14.70% for three frosts. Chapadão do Sul, the predominance is 17.25% of four frosts occur. In Dourados it can be verified that the predominance of two frosts is 27.07%. Maracaju can occur to the existence of eight frosts is 13.93%. And in São Gabriel do Oeste, it was found that there is a 13.81% probability of occurring up to eight frosts. The minimum air temperature is recorded under weather conditions while the minimum grass temperature is recorded near the surface of the ground. The Poisson distribution was used to measure if adverse temperature changes occurred between October and March, between 2008 and 2014, posing a risk to these crops.