Projeções climáticas regionalizadas para o Estado do Tocantins, Brasil, nos cenários RCP 4.5 e RCP 8.5

Abstract

The possible impacts on the water resources and the biodiversity of the Cerrado due to the anthropogenic concentration of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) is considered as one of the main environmental problems of the 21st century. The advance of research on this theme is carried out through the application of climate models, which allow the evaluation of future climate scenarios. In this context, the objective was to asses the climatic changes projected by the regional climatic model Eta, driven by the global models HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 for the early (2011-2040) and mid (2041-2070) of the 21st century, in the State of Tocantins, for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The results were analyzed for the rainy season (October to March) and dry season (April to September), with the following variables being considered: rainfall, evapotranspiration, temperature (mean, maximum and minimum) and relative humidity. The analysis of the future projections exposed the change possibility in the water and thermal regimes in the State of Tocantins in RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 for the 21st century. The most severe projections for rainfall and temperature were provided by Eta-MIROC5 and Eta-HadGEM2-ES, respectively, both for the RCP 8.5 scenary The projections show possibility of reduction of rainfall of up to 524,8 mm.6months-1 (Oct-Mar) for the begining of the 21 st century, mostly for the South region of the State. For the temperatures (mean, maximum and minimum), positive changes were projected for all analyzes. The most severe changes were projected for the mid of the 21 st century, of up to 5.1 °C (mean temp.), 5.9 °C (maximum temp.) and 4.8 °C (minimum temp.), especially for the Southwest region, near the Bananal Island.