Análise dos dados de doação de sangue da fundação HEMOMINAS - núcleo regional de São João del Rei

Abstract

This work had as main objective to fit models, using the methodology of Box and Jenkins, for the series of donations blood Hemominas Foundation - Regional Center of São João del Rei, with the purpose of doing forecasts, comparing them with goals proposed by the Health Ministry. Were used the series number of donors, number of clinical inaptness, number of serologic inaptness and number of spontaneous donation, all with monthly measurement. The first three were collected from January 1993 to december 2006, a total of 168 observations and the fourth was collected between august 1995 and December 2006, totaling 137 observations. The last four observations of each series have been set aside to be compared with the forecasts. The adequacy of the models was verified using the mean squared error of prediction criteria and mean absolute percentage error criteria. The indices provided for the last four months of 2006 to the series of the number of donors, medical disabilities, disabilities of serological and Spontaneous donations were 0,531%, 1,6%, 11,5%and 53%, respectively, coming close itself to the real indices for the same period.