Distribuição espaço-temporal de ocorrências de dengue em Três Corações, Minas Gerais, utilizando processos pontuais

Abstract

Objective: detect the presence of space-time clusters of dengue cases in Três Corações, Minas Gerais, Brazil, using information on the location and time of each occurrence and the historical series of rainfall in the study period. Methods: the Kernel method was used to estimate the intensity of the cases, while the space-time K-function and the scan method were used to detect the pattern and identify clusters, respectively. Results: from the 2,818 observed cases, it was found that most of these occurred in the end of rainy periods. The presence of clusters of cases was also detected, mainly, in the central region of the city. One reason for the formation of clusters may be due to the higher population density of the affected regions. Conclusion: the results show that individuals who live in densely populated regions are more likely to get dengue. The statistical methods used allowed to characterize the spatio-temporal distribution of dengue cases and, they can also be used to analyze other endemic or pandemic diseases, which can contribute to policies to prevent and combat the proliferation of these diseases.