Climate-related variables may not improve monthly scale rainfall predictions by artificial neural networks for the metropolitan region of Belo Horizonte, Brazil

Abstract

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) may experience problems due to insufficient or uninformative predictors, and these problems are common for complex predictions such as those for rainfall. However, some studies point to the use of climate variables and anomalies as predictors to make the forecast more accurate. This research aimed to predict the monthly rainfall, one month in advance, in four municipalities of the metropolitan region of Belo Horizonte using an ANN trained with different climate variables; additionally, it aimed to indicate the suitability of such variables as inputs to these models. The models were developed using the MATLAB® software Version R2011a using the NNTOOL toolbox. The ANNs were trained by the multilayer perceptron architecture and the feedforward and backpropagation algorithm using two combinations of input data, with two and six variables, and one combination of input data with the three most correlated variables to observed rainfall from 1970 to 1999 to predict the rainfall from 2000 to 2009. The climate variable most correlated with the rainfall of the following month was the average compensated temperature. Even when using the variables most correlated with precipitation as predictors (0.66 ≤ nt index ≤ 1.26), there was no notable improvement in the predictive capacity of the models when compared to those that did not use climate variables as predictors (0.55 ≤ nt index ≤ 0.80).