O risco de base e a efetividade do hedge para o agronegócio do café em Minas Gerais

Abstract

Coffee agribusiness return is influenced by the volatility of price changes during the commercialization process. The focus of this study was to evaluate if traders from Minas Gerais may share the price risk with another market agents and speculators, using futures contracts from the Brazilian Futures Exchange (BM&F). Information on basis and basis risk on the local market were observed as a decision parameter, as well as, the capital asset price model was used to estimate the hedging effectiveness and the hedge ratio for a minimum variance position. The substitution of price risk by the basis risk showed a significant risk reduction and the hedging by the portfolio model was also effective to reduce the price variability, being the minimum variance hedge ratio usually different from one. As final conclusion, the future contract was considered efficient to control the price risk.