Modelos de séries temporais aplicados a índices de preços hospitalares do Hospital da Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina

Abstract

The basic principle of the management of institutions directed to the public attendance consists of sound information which is able to help in decision-making. Thus, the knowledge in the managemental aspect is widened enabling for improvement in service quality and reduction in expenses. It is aimed to carry out a study, showing the viability of the application of time series so that the forecasts will contribute to decision-making in the hospital context. For the accomplishment of this work, the hospital price series of the Federal University of Santa Catarina hospital was investigated, this one being made up of remarks concerning the Hospital Price Indices (HIP), portraying the monthly variations of costs related with medicines, consumption material and other services. Thus, the ARIMA models were adjusted both with and without intervention for the period of November, 1993 through December, 2001 and forecasts were made for the months of January to April of 2002.