Mensuração do risco fiscal com base na Hipótese de Fragilidade Financeira Aplicada ao Setor Público

Abstract

This paper proposes a model for measuring fiscal risk as required in the Fiscal Risk Annex (ARF) set forth in the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO). To this end, theoretical approaches are used, such as the Financial Weakness Hypothesis Applied to the Public Sector, risk and uncertainty, and risk management. To measure fiscal risk, the financial positions of the public entity are calculated, descriptive statistical procedures are used, and scenarios are estimated following the assumptions of the Portfolio Theory. The model proved to be pertinent to use, especially for small municipalities due to its simplicity and efficiency of its applicability. This application minimizes degrees of subjectivity in the elaboration of the ARF, is based on an economic theory and on descriptive statistical procedures of dispersion and variability. Additionally, it contributes with an empirical approach to research on this topic.