Viabilidade financeira estocástica do cultivo de mogno-africano

Abstract

The assessment of the financial viability of forestry projects is essential given the long production cycle and the variations associated with productivity, timber prices, and market conditions. In African mahogany plantations (Khaya grandifoliola C. DC.), these uncertainties can significantly influence the economic return on investment. In this context, the present study aimed to analyze the deterministic and stochastic financial viability of African mahogany cultivation, considering different management scenarios and incorporating managerial flexibility through Real Options Theory (ROT). Seven production scenarios were simulated, differentiated by the age at which thinning was carried out, ranging from 7 to 13 years, with final harvest at 25 years. The analysis was initially conducted using deterministic Net Present Value (NPV), followed by the incorporation of uncertainties through Monte Carlo simulation, allowing the estimation of project volatility. Based on these parameters, a binomial tree was constructed to model the stochastic evolution of project value over time. As a managerial flexibility strategy, the abandonment option was considered and exercised whenever the project value became lower than the asset sale value. The results indicated that all scenarios were financially viable under the deterministic approach. However, when managerial flexibility was incorporated, the scenario with thinning at 7 years presented the highest expanded project value, representing the most economically attractive alternative. Therefore, it is concluded that the application of ROT provides a more comprehensive evaluation of forestry projects by simultaneously incorporating risk, uncertainty, and managerial flexibility, allowing a more appropriate representation of the decision-making process in long-term investments.