Geoestatística aplicada às normais climatológicas de temperaturas médias compensadas no Brasil

Abstract

The study and the concern over the climate have been becoming more and more frequent. That because life in general is dependent upon favorable conditions of climate on the planet. That work studied the Average Temperature Normals in the period of 1931-1960 to 1961-1990 by utilizing of the geostatistical methodology (a branch of spatial statistics). It was aimed to study and understand then spatial distribution of the Normals in the Brazilian territory for each of those periods aiming to evaluate possible change of the means of temperature in the country. From the use of Geoestatistics, it was possible to know deterministic characteristics (trends) and spatial distribution characteristics such as: semivariances and semivariogram, fit model of semivariograms, anisotropy, model validation and study of the best spatial interpolation model, Kriging. Through Kriging, two interpolation maps for the average temperatures respective to the two periods were generated. On a third map, generated with the differences between the two first ones, it was found that the regions affected by changes of means of temperature. We conclude the increase of the average temperatures around 0.2 to 1.33oC. In the studied period (1931-1990), the world means increased about 0.55oC. Thus, one can say that Brazil underwent changes of additions of means of temperature of the period of 1931 to 1990 compatible with the changes observed in a world context. Some areas like the South Region, Minas Gerais, Central and Northern Northeast had changes of temperature outside the pattern of the analysis of the world one.